By Arogundade Toheeb, Sustainability Consultant and Political Analyst
As political activities heat up ahead of the by-election to fill the vacant House of Representatives seat in Ibadan North Federal Constituency, analysts and stakeholders alike are watching closely. This election, following the demise of Hon. Olaide Akinremi (Jagaban) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is shaping up to be more than a local contest but a litmus test for what the 2027 general elections may look like in Oyo State
WHY IBADAN NORTH MATTERS
Ibadan North remains Oyo State’s largest voting bloc, with the highest number of accredited voters (over 55,000) during the 2023 gubernatorial election. Its political mood has consistently influenced outcomes across Ibadanland and, by extension, the entire state. In short, whoever dominates Ibadan North controls a significant share of the state’s political narrative.
THE LAST ELECTION: A MIXED SIGNAL
In the 2023 National Assembly elections, late Hon. Akinremi of APC secured 21,135 votes, defeating PDP’s Lanre Sarumi who got 16,060 votes. Accord’s Umar Farouk polled 8,108 votes, and Labour Party had 7,729 votes. But weeks later, during the gubernatorial race, Governor Seyi Makinde swept the LGA with 39,656 votes, compared to APC’s Teslim Folarin’s 15,792 votes.
This sudden swing suggests that federal elections were influenced by President Tinubu’s goodwill, but state elections favored Makinde’s tested grassroots network and popularity. The by-election will therefore test which of these dynamics holds more sway under current conditions.
EMERGING REALITIES AHEAD OF THE BY-ELECTION
1. Low Voter Turnout Likely
There is minimal public awareness about the by-election at present, which may result in low voter turnout. Unlike general elections, by-elections are often quieter and may not mobilize wide-scale public attention unless the parties act swiftly.
2. Collapse of Accord Into APC
A major shift has occurred since 2023. Many Accord Party members have now joined the APC, giving the party a potential numerical boost, if properly coordinated. However, this also places more pressure on the APC to unite previously rival factions and prevent internal sabotage.
3. Disillusionment With APC at the Federal Level
There is growing frustration among voters due to the current economic hardship under the APC-led federal government. What once was a strength, President Tinubu’s influence, is now seen by some as a liability. This disillusionment could reduce APC’s appeal among urban voters in Ibadan North.
4. Labour Party Voters Leaning Toward PDP
Most Labour Party apologists, especially the youth, are now aligning with Governor Seyi Makinde, whose governance style and youth-focused policies have won admiration. This shift strengthens PDP’s chances, particularly with a youthful candidate, Hon. Folajimi Oyekunle ‘Don’, reportedly backed by the governor.
WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE OUTCOME
a. Candidate Appeal and Grassroots Connection
The APC cannot afford to field a mere technocrat or party loyalist. To remain competitive, the party must present a grassroots mobilizer, someone who can energize both old loyalists and new entrants. PDP’s youthful candidate already fits this mold.
b. Mobilization Strength
In a low-turnout scenario, the party with superior mobilization machinery will win. It’s not about the size of the crowd at rallies but the ability to convert support into actual votes at the polling unit.
c. Youth and First-Time Voters
Ibadan North houses the University of Ibadan, The Polytechnic Ibadan, and other youth-dominated communities. These voters are critical swing blocs. PDP may have an edge if it continues engaging this segment.
CONCLUSION: PILOT FOR 2027
This by-election is not merely about who replaces Hon. Akinremi. It is a pilot race for what Oyo’s political dynamics could look like in 2027. The outcome will shape narratives about APC’s strength post-Akinremi, PDP’s ability to consolidate power under Makinde’s leadership, and whether youth-focused politics will shape the next generation of leaders.
Ibadan North is watching. Oyo State is listening. Nigeria is learning.
